In response to my recent note about the role of Citrix in prolonging the lifespan of obsolete fat-client EMRs and LISs (see: Citrix Has Become a Barrier to Improvements in Healthcare Software), Dr. Ulysses Balis has responded with a comment. He is Director of the Division of Informatics in the Department of Pathology, University of Michigan Medical School. In this interest of continuing this discussion, I quote it in its entirety below with boldface emphasis mine:
I couldn't agree with you more, Bruce. With the continued insistence of many vendors to push thick client applications, Citrix is often the only effective methodology to purvey support for 100's of concurrent users. As an example, our informatics division looked at the Cellavision product about a month ago. It's a big, bloated thick client app that REQUIRES Open GL. Does that run on Citrix? Nope. Given that our department does not want to support this as a native application on a myriad of hematologist’s PC's that aren't even under our [guidance and control because they are managed by central IT], the answer is simple: Cellavision is a non-starter. There is only one long-term solution to this present slow-burning fiasco, and that is web-based applications, which make use of open architectures whenever possible. Hence, my take is that in the end, Citrix is dead. Epic is dead. Eclipsys is dead. Cerner is dead. I expect a new breed of web-based solutions to replace these Mumps and Cobol-based clunkers within the decade. And when that finally happens, it won't be a minute too soon. So, in summary, I would offer the friendly amendment to your thesis statement that it is not only Citrix that is a barrier to improvement in healthcare software, so too are the myriad of poorly-written thick-client applications that continue to fuel the demand for Citrix. Both need to go.
So here is an interesting question based on Ul's comment. Why are the shares of Cerner, a major vendor of EMRs, at historic highs, reaching about $85 per share in October if their products are dead, to quote Dr. Balis. Let's put aside for the moment some of the bad publicity that Cerner has continued to receive in the U.K. (see: Another Saga of "Blame the Vendor" Leaks Out of the UK). I am sure that most of this tends to be discounted by American investors. Let's also put aside the fact that most of the EMR purchases by major health systems have gone to Epic lately (see: Forbes.com Puts Some Numbers to the Epic Systems Success Story). Everyone agrees that this latter system is the EMR clunker du jour.
Answering my own question, I am sure that the success of the Cerner shares is based on its most recent quarterly financial performance and the infusion of federal money into hospital EMRs (see: CCHIT Certification and "Meaningful Use" of EMRs). I certainly agree that the days of our obsolete EMRs are numbered. "Within the decade" is a rather long span of time, however. The key question at hand is whether the incumbents in the EMR field are investing some of their capital in developing the "next-gen" web-based systems. New EMR market entrants face the formidable task of confronting the computerization of complex healthcare transactions using new tools and with severe penalties for errors. The will also confront very risk averse buyers of their systems who may not be that sophisticated technically.








