I have blogged in the past about how the mission and nature of hospitals in the U.S. is changing rapidly (see, for example: The Design of Bedless Hospitals Continue to Evolve Based on Cost and Technology; Some Additional Ideas About the Bedless Hospitals of the Future; The Case of the "Disappearing Hospital Beds"; Implications for Pathologists). This same idea was covered in a somewhat controversial recent article by Ezekiel Emanuel with the provocative headline that asked whether hospitals were becoming obsolete (see: Are Hospitals Becoming Obsolete?). Below is an excerpt from it:
What year saw the maximum number of hospitalizations in the United States? The answer is 1981....That year, there were over 39 million hospitalizations — 171 admissions per 1,000 Americans. Thirty-five years later, the population has increased by 40 percent, but hospitalizations have decreased by more than 10 percent. There is now a lower rate of hospitalizations than in 1946. As a result, the number of hospitals has declined to 5,534 this year from 6,933 in 1981.....The number of hospitals is also declining because more complex care can safely and effectively be provided elsewhere, and that’s good news.....Studies have shown that patients with heart failure, pneumonia and some serious infections can be given intravenous antibiotics and other hospital-level treatments at home by visiting nurses. These “hospital at home” programs usually lead to more rapid recoveries, at a lower cost. As these trends accelerate, many of today’s hospitals will downsize, merge or close. Others will convert to doctors’ offices or outpatient clinics. Those that remain will be devoted to emergency rooms, high-tech services for premature babies, patients requiring brain surgery and organ transplants, and the like.
Meanwhile, the nearly one billion annual visits to physicians’ offices, imaging facilities, surgical centers, urgent-care centers and “doc in the box” clinics will grow....Hospitals will also continue consolidating into huge, multihospital systems. They say that this will generate cost savings that can be passed along to patients, but in fact, the opposite happens. The mergers create local monopolies that raise prices to counter the decreased revenue from fewer occupied beds. Federal antitrust regulators must be more vigorous in opposing such mergers. Instead of trying to forestall the inevitable, we should welcome the advances that are making hospitals less important. Any change in the health care system that saves money and makes patients healthier deserves to be celebrated.
Dr. Emmanuel does not touch on this point but hospitals are also experiencing competition for high-margin surgical procedures like knee replacements from specialized surgicenters. Such centers can perform knee replacements as ambulatory procedures and at lower prices (see: Tug of War between Hospitals and Surgicenters for Knee Replacements; Some Surgicenters Listing Prices, Reject Insurance, and Require Cash Payment). Their price competitiveness can be attributed to their high degree of specialization and also perhaps to their cherry-picking the most healthy patients who can tolerate the lack of an inpatient stay. Hospitals subsidize their money-losing units like critical care units with their profits from labs and radiology, for example. This constrains them from lowering their prices to compete with surgicenters that don't have such expenses. Also, you need to pay attention to Emmanuel's remark about the fact that merged hospitals are becoming monopolies with fewer incentives to lower their prices.
The future of pathology, a hospital-based speciality, is inextricably bound up with the future of hospitals. To a certain extent, the same logic applies to the field of radiology but many radiologists work in stand-alone imaging centers that are competing with hospital-based radiology groups (see: Need an MRI? It pays to shop around. Big time.; Anthem Won't Pay for Outpatient MRIs and CT Scans in Hospitals). This trend away from hospital-based care may be good news for the surgical pathology reference labs and the large national reference labs like LabCorp and Quest. I have suggested in the past that these two giants may be pursuing different strategies (see: Quest and LabCorp Pursue Divergent Strategies; Which Will Succeed More?).